Research network on EU scenarios: PAradigm SHifts Modelling and INnovative Approaches (PASHMINA)

Research network on EU scenarios: PAradigm SHifts Modelling and INnovative Approaches (PASHMINA)

Member of the Scientific Advisory Board: Olivia Bina, ICS, Lisbon
Project coordinator: Carlo Sessa, ISIS, Rome

The project aims to improve the capacity to address global changes in a long term time perspective (2030--2050), developing tools - new generations of models and indicators - with enhanced capabilities to take into account the interaction between the economy and the environment, paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus and the land-use and territorial functions (http://www.pashmina-project.eu/).

Estatuto: 
Entidade participante
Financiado: 
Sim
Entidades: 
Comissão Europeia
Rede: 
PASHMINA
Keywords: 

Scenarios, Futures, Europe, Sustainability

Member of the Scientific Advisory Board: Olivia Bina, ICS, Lisbon
Project coordinator: Carlo Sessa, ISIS, Rome

The project aims to improve the capacity to address global changes in a long term time perspective (2030--2050), developing tools - new generations of models and indicators - with enhanced capabilities to take into account the interaction between the economy and the environment, paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus and the land-use and territorial functions (http://www.pashmina-project.eu/).

Objectivos: 
The objectives of PASHMINA include 1. production of exploratory scenarios (Qualitative storylines) of future global change options up to 2030 and 2050, complemented by a Quantitative analysis of key development indicators (GDP, well being, etc.) undertaken by means of global long term meta-models (WP1 ) 2. analysis of the consequences of the paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus related to the urban functions: housing, mobility, recreation, etc. (WP2) 3. analysis of the possible paradigm shifts in the land use arod territorial functions related to agriculture, forestry and more in general ecosystem services: ego biofuels, biodiversity, ecosystems metabolism, etc. (WP3) 4. first development a new generation of global indicators and models, starting from already existing sustainabilily accounting and general equilibrium modelling frameworxs and adapting these to make them (more) sensitive to paradigm shifts in the long-term perspective (WP4) 5. pilot assessment of possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to tackle with different paradigm shifts, evaluating their trade -oils (WP5). 6. to produce a comparative evaluation of the advancements in modelling tools achieved by PASHMINA, and to disseminate those in the scientific and stakeholders communities by means of innovative dissemination tools (virtual library, wiki-web tools, webGIS application) and other dissemination activities (WP6).
State of the art: 
The collaborative research undertaken in PASHMINA will reveal paradigm shifts that require extending the set of indicators and modelling tools for improving our understanding of the impact of economic activities. An authoritative state-of-the-art basis for the project is the Issues Paper of the Stiglitz-Commission published in September 2008 with the statement, that &quot;Our statistical apparatus, which may have served us well in a not too distant past, is in need of serious revisions&quot; (www.beyond-gdp.eu). Another source for this topic is the OECD-JRC conference &quot;Measuring Wellbeing and Societal Progress&quot; Milan, June 19-21, 2006 and subsequent work (composite-indicators.jrc.ec.europa.eu). <p>The need for new modelling approaches is motivated by two identified deficiencies, on which PASHMINA aims to progress beyond the state-of-the-art:</p><ul><li>One deals with the obvious deficiencies of conventional measures of well being as GDP or consumption. A broad range of innovative measures have been emerging over recent years but are not yet fully integrated into a comprehensive modelling framework;</li><li>Another deficiency is the black box perspective of technologies in most models. Therefore, the range of available technologies together with their investment requirements and the impacts from utilizing them will be made explicitly visible in the modelling tools;</li></ul><p>In what follows we will describe the state-of-the art, and the advance that PASHMINA would bring about, in relation to the different tools developed within the project.</p><p>Global analysis by means of &quot;meta-models&quot;: Forecast models based on general equilibrium, calibrated for the current situation, are indispensable to evaluate policies objectively, but need to be complemented by other models able to explore stable evolutions distant from main-stream, business-as-usual tendencies. Meta-modelling, generally speaking, can be understood in different ways:</p><ul><li>It can be considered as the definition of a semantic model for a family of related domain models. In this sense, meta-modelling becomes very much related to Ontological Engineering. We can define an ontology as being the explicit representation of domain concepts. Under this definition, the process of building an analysis domain model in a standard object-oriented methodology can be understood as meta-modelling as long as the resulting model is precise and general enough as to be used to model different systems apart from the one under study. </li><li>In System Engineering, meta-modelling is understood in a quite different sense. A metamodel is here a simple approximation (usually mathematical) of a complex model. The metamodel requires less computer resources and can be run intensively under controlled parameters to reveal what affects the system performance.</li></ul><p>Paradigm shift and urbanization: A change of transport-energy paradigm away from ICE-petrol will be unavoidable in the coming decades for climate change reasons. It will be facilitated by the increasing scarcity of oil. It could result from a generalisation of the use of electricity in the road transport (as earlier in the rail transport), which could afterwards pave the way to the use of hydrogen in fuel cells, both of them avoiding diffused, non sequestrable, CO2 emissions at the level of the vehicles.</p><p>Several studies, reports, already provide reliable materials about costs, performances and industrial issues related to these break-through technologies. But their impacts / compatibility on/with mobility requirements have not yet been assessed. Their impacts on the overall energy system and on the environment, which can be enormous if we consider what has been the case with the petrol-ICE paradigm, have not yet been seriously assessed, only very poorly with conventional energy models structured according the existing energy system. Another major weakness of most studies carried out up till now is their very poor accounting for the geographical differences and spatial variation of the changes brought about by new paradigm, although these dimensions appear more and more crucial to properly assess interactions between mobility, energy and the environment. PASHMINA will attempt to overcome these limitations.</p><p>Integrated assessment of land use competition: Land use competition has long been subject receiving little attention until the drastic increase in food prices, the request for an increased supply of bioenergy, and the threat of a further increase in the loss of biodiversity have drawn the attention to the fact that the land area of the earth can not be increased despite an increasing demand for services obtained from the natural resource &quot;land&quot;. Today, research is making progress on the assessment of the earth land productive resources and the dynamics of the changes in these resources both through direct human intervention and - indirectly - through climate change. These studies make increasingly clear that indeed producing an increasing number of goods and services from land resources (food, energy, ecosystem services, and sealed surfaces for human uses) will provoke conflicts between the competing uses, or at least will require an assessment of the trade-offs between different land use activities. The integrated assessment of the different land use options and the evaluation of the market as well as non-market values is the next step in this ongoing research on the competition for scarce land resources.</p><p>New generation of global accounting and general equilibrium modelling frameworks: Several efforts&nbsp; to perform global integrated modelling of global change impacts addressing wider sets of performance indicators have been completed or are underway in particular with respect to land use modelling related to climate change. Studies have been performed on global (e.g., Hertelet al. 2009, Rokityanskiy et al., 2007, IMAGE, Bouwman, Kram, Klein Goldewijk 2006, Strengers et al., 2004, UNEP, 2002), European ((SENSOR, Helming, 2006; ACCELERATES, Abildtrup et al., 2006; EURURALIS, Klijn et al., 2004; ATEAM, Rounsevell et al., 2006) and regional scales (e.g., Hoogeveen &amp; Ribeiro, 2005). This consortium will build on ongoing work in the related project CC-TAME, ADAM, ENSEMBLES, TRANSUST and will reconfigure the available tools for the purpose of analysing paradigm shift and thereby addressing their shortcomings.</p><p>Assessment of adaptation and mitigation strategies: Discussion over global climate policy, very similarly to that over other global challenges, hinges to a great extent on its economic feasibility. However, most of the evaluation of costs and benefits of global climate policy are done assuming a first best world (full participation of all countries, full availability of carbon free technologies, no uncertainty over future climate damages) and without accounting for two key factors affecting both costs and benefits: uncertainty over future policy decisions and the capacity of adaptation.</p><p>European coverage and comparative perspective: The analyses undertaken in PASHMINA will cover a wide range of spatial scales:</p><ul><li>The global world economy and its main regions (Europe, USA, Japan, BRIC, developing countries etc.). This will be the spatial reach of WP1 global meta-analysis.</li><li>The 27 EU member states and a number of other OECD countries (depending on the availability of data). This will be the spatial coverage in particular of the analysis of innovative accounting indicators, undertaken by WIFO in WP4. Depending on data availability the same EU 27 spatial coverage will be the target of the new generation of models developed in WP4, but most probably the first development of such tools - and especially of general equilibrium models - will need to be limited to those countries (as for instance France) where available data are detailed enough. For instance, CGE models include the circuits for the secondary distribution of national income, allowing to analyse in detail the pension issue, which are quite country specific.</li></ul>&bull;Finally, regional case studies will be performed in WP2 - addressing paradigm shifts in the urban environment - and WP3 - focusing on cases of integrated assessment of land use competition. Although the spatial coverage could be presently limited by bottlenecks in data availability, it is important to remark that some of the new generation tools subject to first development in PASHMINA will be GIS-based. GIS analysis and modelling will contribute to the overall outcome of PASHMINA by highlighting the importance, constrains and potential of the territorial dynamics while analysing paradigm shifts and new socio-economic concepts in a long term perspective. The project should demonstrate possibilities and the power arising from novel GIS based methods and from integration and analysis of the wide range of spatial data within new mapping applications.
Parceria: 
Rede Internacional

PASHMINA

Coordenador Geral 
Carlo Sessa (Project coordinator)
Coordenador 
Data Inicio: 
01/01/2010
Data Fim: 
01/01/2012
Duração: 
24 meses
Concluído