O objectivo deste projecto consiste em investigar em pormenor o impacto relativo da identidade e ideologia partidária e dos líderes partidários no comportamento eleitoral em Portugal.
Objectivos:
A quantidade de investigação produzida sobre o comportamento eleitoral em Portugal tem aumentado consideravelmente. Nos últimos anos, surgiram novos dados e resultados. Este projecto tem como objectivo analisar em detalhe duas questões específicas. A primeira refere-se à importância relativa da identificação e ideologia partidária como factores explicativos da escolha de voto. A segunda consiste no papel e natureza dos efeitos dos líderes na escolha de voto em Portugal.
State of the art:
This project contributes to the gathering current of research on the dynamics of party identification and ideological identification in western democracies. For the frequently studied French case, it has been established that ideological identification generally outweighs party identification in shaping the French voter's choice. We use essentially the same methodological framework - causal analysis with panel data - but apply it to Portugal. This case is relevant for a number of reasons. First, Portugal is representative of third wave democracies where parties tend to be less institutionalized. Second, Portuguese electoral institutions share characteristics with those in France. Third, past research on the Portuguese case indicates a role for both party and ideology in voting behavior, but the panel data necessary to help determine which is more important were unavailable until 2005. Fourth, the Portuguese case enables us to test the variables' relative importance in two different institutional contexts, namely the 2005 legislative and the 2006 the presidential elections. We estimate a multi-equation model of the vote, using two-stage least squares and ordered logit, as well as binomial and multinomial logit techniques. The results indicate that ideological identification has moe of an impact than party identification on the Portuguese voter's choice, both at the legislative and the presidential level
