No dia 3 de outubro, Michael Lewis-Beck (University of Iowa) será o orador convidado do seminário do Grupo de Invstigação SPARC. O tema para esta sessão será A Political History Forecast of the 2024 US Congressional Elections. A partir das 14h30 na Sala 2 do ICS-ULisboa e online.

In terms of the upcoming Congressional races, Stephen Quinlan (GESIS, Leibnitz Institute, Mannheim) and I have argued that these contests can be largely explained by political history rather than immediate policy issues, e.g., economic performance or political popularity. (See “A Political History Forecast of the 2024 US Congressional Elections,” Michael S. Lewis-Beck and  Stephen Quinlan, PS:Political Science and Politics, 2024, forthcoming.). Focusing on historical party and governance dynamics, embedded within ongoing structural and institutional features, our models provide reasonable predictions of the Democratic Party's support in Congressional elections, 1946 and 2022. 

Michael S. Lewis-Beck holds the title F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. Professor Lewis-Beck has authored or co-authored over 325 articles and books, including Economics and Elections, The American Voter Revisited, French Presidential Elections, Forecasting Elections, The Austrian Voter, Latin American Elections: Choice and Change, The Danish Voter and Applied Regression. He has served as Editor of the American Journal of Political Science, Electoral Studies, and the Sage QASS series in quantitative methods.  He is past Associate Editor of International Journal of Forecasting and current Associate Editor French Politics. He has held various positions abroad including, more recently, Visiting Professor, GESIS, University of Mannheim; Paul Lazersfeld University Professor at the University of Vienna; Visiting Professor at Center for Citizenship and Democracy, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium; Visiting Professor at LUISS University, Rome; Visiting Senior Scholar, Political Science, University of Aarhus, Denmark.