Dia 18,  pelas 14:30, João Cancela (NOVA-fcsh) apresenta no Seminário SPARC, do ICS, um trabalho sobre os impactos eleitorais do sismo de 1998 nos Açores.

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In SPARC we will have João Cancela from FCSH-UNL presenting the following paper:

"Electoral aftershocks: the effects of an earthquake in a multilevel political setting"

How do voters react to unexpected and highly consequential events? Research on the electoral effects of such instances, and of natural disasters in particular, has been growing in recent years. The paper adds to this literature by examining two questions: Do voters' responses to a disaster and its consequences depend on the type of election at stake? And for how long do such electoral effects last? In order to tackle these questions, the paper exploits the aftermath of a 1998 earthquake that hit the mid-Atlantic Azores archipelago, provoking highly asymmetrical levels of damage between and within islands.

The results indicate that in the areas that were more affected by the earthquake sanctions to the incumbent depended on the level of government. While the PS was the incumbent party in national and regional office, its vote share only diminished in the following subnational elections, and not in national elections. This punishment effect appears to have faded by 2008, one decade after the earthquake.

These findings are particularly relevant in multilevel political settings where the authorities' capacity to deliver relief efforts might be inhibited due to the economic, political or geographical constraints.​

Here the link for the session 

https://videoconf-colibri.zoom.us/j/87074148871

and as usual in sala 1.