No próximo dia 8 de Outubro, Renato Lima de Oliveira (ICS-ULisboa) será o orador convidado do Seminário do Grupo de Investigação SPARC, com o tema Brazilian Presidential Elections: Analysis of the First-Round Results and Prospects for the Runoff. Este evento terá lugar na sala 1 do ICS-ULisboa e online.

Resumo:

Political polarization in Brazil has intensified since the 2018 elections, when the right came to power after two decades of alternation between center-left and left-wing governments. With the return of the left to government in 2022, partisan conflicts and competing political narratives between the two main ideological camps became even more pronounced. The October 4, 2026 elections may represent another shift toward the right, following a trend observed in several Latin American countries in recent years, or a continuation of the Lulism Populism. In this presentation, Renato Lima will analyze the results of the presidential election, focusing on the national vote and state-level results, as well as the impact of the elections for the Senate, House of Representatives, and state governments on political negotiations and alliances. The new composition of party caucuses in the National Congress will also be a relevant factor in the runoff. At the end of the presentation, possible scenarios for the runoff, scheduled for October 25, will be discussed based on the election results and available opinion polls.