Strategic Foresight: Engaging in Chaos-Complexity and Sustainability

Strategic Foresight: Engaging in Chaos-Complexity and Sustainability

Sala 3
30/11/2022 to 02/12/2022
09:00 - 13:00

Guest Lecturer: Prof. Dr. Elif Cepni
Dean of Business School, Karabuk University.
UNESCO Chair on Anticipation Studies, Futures Literacy and Strategic Foresight.
Fellow of the World Academuy of Art and Science.

Plans, strategies, and policies are based on fixed goals. But the environment that we live, and the conditions are changing very rapidly.

The problems of our time are interconnected and interdependent. We live in post normal times which is characterized by complexity, chaos, and contradictions. The world is connected as never before. There will be one future for all or there will be no future. There is an urgent necessity for powering inclusive sustainable development. How we can improve our ability to predict the future may also improve the quality of our life and decision making under uncertainty.

Scenario planning is a decision-making tool, it shous us how to think in new and interesting ways. It also shows us how we can benefit from randomness, uncertainty, and chaos. Scenario planning and counterfactual reasoning can also be used to find the better ways of meeting sustanable development goals.

Core elements of the course:

  • The VUCA World - (Post-Normal Times) Volatility-Uncertainty-Complexity-Ambiguity
  • Decision Making and Decision Theory (Making Smart Decisions)
  • Thinking and Irrationality of Rationality
  • What is Trategic Foresight (learning about the future, addressing unpredictable events) Differences with Strategic Planning
  • Foresight Methods (Research)
  • Systems Thinking (Leading in Complexity)


Applications: Up to 25/11/2022

Applications exclusively online through FenixEdu:

If you already have an ICS account, you must use your Campus/Edu credentials to apply. You can regain access to your ULisboa account at:

If you have never been an ICS student, you must register at:

If you do not remember your ICS Fénix access data, you must regain access at:

The application and attendance of this course are fee. However, external students to ICS must pay and enrolment fee, which includes school insurance, in the amount of €25. 

Limit of enrolments: 20 students.