ICS Working Paper Nº1/2018

ICS W O R K I N G P A P E R S 2018 24 (University of East Anglia), Verónica Policarpo (Institute of Social Sciences - University of Lisbon), Gil Penha Lopes (Faculty of Sciences - University of Lisbon) and Lena Pfeifer (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) for their insightful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The final version is of our sole responsibility.