The double postponement: Men and women coping with childbearing intentions in their late 30s and early 40s
The double postponement: Men and women coping with childbearing intentions in their late 30s and early 40s
If several European countries came into the 21st century with low or even very low fertility, some experienced slight increases during the last decade, while Portugal underwent a steady decline: from a TFR of 1.6 in 2000 to 1.3 in 2009, one of the lowest in the European Union.
An explanation for this recent drop is linked to the increase in only-child parities along with a cut-back in 3rd and higher birth orders . In fact, Portuguese fertility encloses this distinctiveness: a high proportion of one-child families, and a minor incidence of childlessness. So we can say that in Portugal there is still a great propensity for the transition to parenthood, but not for the transition to the second child.
And this fact seems to be related with another singularity: the postponement of this transition, an upward trend at least since the cohorts born in the early fifties . Postponing this childbirth several years became a common fertility behavior and an increasing pathway to unmeet childbearing preferences and intentions.
But we do have to ask: if this postponement has been the core of the most recent shifts, is it realistic to expect an imminent upturn in childlessness as a result of further postponement of the younger cohorts, as is happening elsewhere ?
In Portugal, this double postponement is already in motion in cohorts that are still in their reproductive years, as a recent national survey has revealed: for men and women born in the early 70s having only one child is becoming as normal as having 2, and remaining childless until their late thirties is not unusual.
Looking into the double postponement entails exploring the gender gap: the childbearing agenda imbalance that brings about gendered childbearing intentions and (lack of) opportunities. Men are more willing to postpone, specially the first transition , and have more chances to recover in their late forties. But it is important as well to reveal the socially determined mechanisms that are engendering each postponement, since those that postpone the first transition belong to highly qualified social settings, while the others belong to low-middle classes.
This research project intends to produce a further questioning in relation to childbearing intentions within the framework of contemporary postponement and decision-making processes, and specifically regarding the transitions to the first and the second child in cohorts that are coming close to the end of reproductive life. The aims are two and will be pursued within a life course perspective: 1st, to identify the mechanisms that are engendering those postponements and how they entail coping with and reshaping childbearing intentions throughout the life course; and 2nd, to understand the chain of decision-making processes that triggers the childbearing postponement, and the resulting balance of gains and costs for one's life. Assuming that decision-making only take place inside a stable partnership is a narrow perspective, since the social regulation that traditionally confined sexuality and reproduction within marriage has been (to a certain extent) withdrawn by the reproductive revolution
But research claims for a third cross-cutting aim: to clarify if the gender gap concerning the childbearing agenda, while performing as a postponer within couples' reproductive trajectories, turns into a gender trap by jeopardizing childbearing intentions of one or both partners; and also, if the gender gap removed from the conjugal arrangement can be a source of different opportunities to recover from postponement, for instance by looking for a younger partner in the case of men, or for alternative ways to become a parent (assisted reproductive technology, adoption...) in the case of women.
There will be two methodological approaches: a qualitative one based on in-depth interviews with men and women aged between 35 and 45, in order to understand how they cope with the transitions to the first and second child in different conjugal situations (alone and in a couple); and a quantitative one, regarding the analysis of data from the Census 2011 and 2001, as well as other sources, to portray the current demographic trends concerning postponement, childlessness and one-child families in Portugal, outlining major changes in a period of a decade.
To meet the goals set in this proposal, the main research team will count with the full collaboration of two grant-holders (one at ICS-UL and one at University of Évora), as well as the complementary expertise of two international consultants: Prof. Maria Rita Testa (Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Sciences) and Prof. Carmen Leccardi (University of Milano-Bicocca).
Project The double postponement: men and women coping with childbearing intentions in their late 30s and early 40s - PTDC/CS-SOC/121148/2010 - Financed by FCT
Low fertility; Postponement; Transitions; Quantitative and qualitative approach
If several European countries came into the 21st century with low or even very low fertility, some experienced slight increases during the last decade, while Portugal underwent a steady decline: from a TFR of 1.6 in 2000 to 1.3 in 2009, one of the lowest in the European Union.
An explanation for this recent drop is linked to the increase in only-child parities along with a cut-back in 3rd and higher birth orders . In fact, Portuguese fertility encloses this distinctiveness: a high proportion of one-child families, and a minor incidence of childlessness. So we can say that in Portugal there is still a great propensity for the transition to parenthood, but not for the transition to the second child.
And this fact seems to be related with another singularity: the postponement of this transition, an upward trend at least since the cohorts born in the early fifties . Postponing this childbirth several years became a common fertility behavior and an increasing pathway to unmeet childbearing preferences and intentions.
But we do have to ask: if this postponement has been the core of the most recent shifts, is it realistic to expect an imminent upturn in childlessness as a result of further postponement of the younger cohorts, as is happening elsewhere ?
In Portugal, this double postponement is already in motion in cohorts that are still in their reproductive years, as a recent national survey has revealed: for men and women born in the early 70s having only one child is becoming as normal as having 2, and remaining childless until their late thirties is not unusual.
Looking into the double postponement entails exploring the gender gap: the childbearing agenda imbalance that brings about gendered childbearing intentions and (lack of) opportunities. Men are more willing to postpone, specially the first transition , and have more chances to recover in their late forties. But it is important as well to reveal the socially determined mechanisms that are engendering each postponement, since those that postpone the first transition belong to highly qualified social settings, while the others belong to low-middle classes.
This research project intends to produce a further questioning in relation to childbearing intentions within the framework of contemporary postponement and decision-making processes, and specifically regarding the transitions to the first and the second child in cohorts that are coming close to the end of reproductive life. The aims are two and will be pursued within a life course perspective: 1st, to identify the mechanisms that are engendering those postponements and how they entail coping with and reshaping childbearing intentions throughout the life course; and 2nd, to understand the chain of decision-making processes that triggers the childbearing postponement, and the resulting balance of gains and costs for one's life. Assuming that decision-making only take place inside a stable partnership is a narrow perspective, since the social regulation that traditionally confined sexuality and reproduction within marriage has been (to a certain extent) withdrawn by the reproductive revolution
But research claims for a third cross-cutting aim: to clarify if the gender gap concerning the childbearing agenda, while performing as a postponer within couples' reproductive trajectories, turns into a gender trap by jeopardizing childbearing intentions of one or both partners; and also, if the gender gap removed from the conjugal arrangement can be a source of different opportunities to recover from postponement, for instance by looking for a younger partner in the case of men, or for alternative ways to become a parent (assisted reproductive technology, adoption...) in the case of women.
There will be two methodological approaches: a qualitative one based on in-depth interviews with men and women aged between 35 and 45, in order to understand how they cope with the transitions to the first and second child in different conjugal situations (alone and in a couple); and a quantitative one, regarding the analysis of data from the Census 2011 and 2001, as well as other sources, to portray the current demographic trends concerning postponement, childlessness and one-child families in Portugal, outlining major changes in a period of a decade.
To meet the goals set in this proposal, the main research team will count with the full collaboration of two grant-holders (one at ICS-UL and one at University of Évora), as well as the complementary expertise of two international consultants: Prof. Maria Rita Testa (Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Sciences) and Prof. Carmen Leccardi (University of Milano-Bicocca).
Project The double postponement: men and women coping with childbearing intentions in their late 30s and early 40s - PTDC/CS-SOC/121148/2010 - Financed by FCT